印度-東協貿易的軌跡:超越自由貿易協定

The Trajectory of the Indo-ASEAN Trade: FTA and Beyond

聖古普塔 Dipankar Sengupta

德巴喜斯•查卡拉鮑迪 Debashis Chakraborty

普瑞坦•班那吉 Pritam Banerjee

WTO研究第二十期

關鍵字

印度、貿易政策、國際貿易組織、東協、經濟整合

中文摘要

一般而言,截至2003年止,印度都遵循多邊途徑促進貿易,但其後杜哈回合(Doha Round)談判牛步化導致印度貿易政策轉向區域貿易協定(RTAs)。現在印度已與數個發展中國家與貿易集團維持優惠貿易關係。在印度RTA議程裡東協國家佔有特別地位,主要原因有三。其一,雖然印度在亞洲已與數國進行RTA談判,但就東協成員的數目來看東協所涉及的貿易自由化遠比其他談判對象來得廣泛。其二,透過東協印度政府所採行的「東望政策」(Look East Policy)可發揮極致,達到發展內陸東北地區的目標。其三,一旦與東協的RTA談判成功地含括商品、服務業與投資合作,印度就可與其他的發展中國家的貿易集團如南錐共同體(MERCOSUR)與南部非洲關稅同盟(Southern African Customs Union, SACU)簽訂類似的協定。

本文主旨是試圖解析印度-東協FTA談判的來龍去脈。 由於印度與東協都涉入多邊貿易集團,雙方對後FTA時期真正市場開放之實現皆非常謹慎小心。

Key Words

India, ASEAN, Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations, Economic Integration

Abstract

India generally followed the multilateral route for trade promotion upto 2003, but in the subsequent period the slow progress of the Doha Round Negotiations motivated it to go for regional trade agreements (RTAs). Presently the country is engaged in preferential trade relationship with several developing countries and trade blocs. In India’s RTA agenda ASEAN countries hold a special position owing to a number of reasons. First, while India has been involved in several RTA negotiations in Asia, ASEAN involves much broader trade liberalization, given the number of countries associated with this initiative. Secondly, through ASEAN the ‘Look East Policy’ adopted by the Indian government can be best utilized to develop the land-locked Northeast region of India. Thirdly, once the ASEAN negotiation covering merchandise products, services and investment collaboration is concluded successfully, India can enter into similar agreements with other developing country trade blocs like MERCOSUR and SACU. In this background, the present analysis attempts to understand the developments in the Indo-ASEAN FTA negotiations. The analysis notes that both India and ASEAN have been involved in multiple trade blocs, as a result of which both sides were weary of the actual market access to be realized in the post-FTA period. Understandably the negotiations for liberalizing merchandise trade continued for a long time with both sides fighting over ‘negative list’ and ‘sensitive list’, ultimately coming into effect from January 2010 onwards. However, the success of the merchandise trade reform has so far exerted limited effect on the negotiations for liberalizing trade in services. It is observed that several key ASEAN countries are concerned over India’s expertise in key service sectors in general and professional services in particular, which force them to proceed slowly in the negotiations. In addition, there is considerable scope to enhance investment collaboration between ASEAN and India.

The current paper argues that India on one hand needs to develop key infrastructure linkages with ASEAN countries for export promotion, and enhance the competitiveness of the economy on the other to withstand the effects of cheaper import inflow. It notes that without realization of trade benefits, frictions over anti-dumping measures, rules of origin (ROO) issues etc. might continue to function as a backward pull in the system.